The tipsters table, York Races, Saturday, July 1, 2017Who's tipping what: scroll horizontally to see all the picks
|Tipster/ race||Dick Turpin||Sun||Times||Guardian||Telegraph||At The Races||GG.co.uk||Sporting Life|
|1.55||Queen Penn||Moseeb||Moseeb||Queen Penn||Queen Penn||Moseeb||Queen Penn||Moseeb|
|2.30||Sainted||Sainted||Sainted||Sainted||Sainted||Sainted||Rebel Surge||Fourth Way|
|3.05||Defoe (Nap)||Defoe||Appointed||Appointed||Emenem||Bear Valley||Defoe||Appointed|
|3.35||Home Cummins||Silvery Moon||Just Hiss||Power Game||Fingal's Cave||Home Cummins||Silvery Moon||Fingal's Cave|
|4.15||White Rosa||White Rosa||Caridade||White Rosa||Caridade||Spinnaka||Spinnaka||Spinnaka|
|4.50||Hilary J (nb)||Bashiba||Hilary J||Black Grass||Desert Ace||Henley||Bashiba||Fumbo Jumbo|
It’s a first for York – the Summer Music Saturday.
York Racecourse has run many a music showcase in seasons past, but this is its debut event on the first Saturday in July.
And before perky popster Olly Murs struts his stuff on the Knavesmire stage, the horses are the stars – in a seven-race showdown.
But who will perform, and who will get stage fright? Over to our tipster Dick Turpin…
One question dominates the racing on Knavesmire today. Exactly how muddy will it be? The projected going is ‘Good to Soft’ and with overnight rain expected, the likelihood is that conditions will remain at the softer end of that range.
Regular readers will remember what happened at the Dante meeting when conditions turned the formbook upside down [That’s enough excuses, Turpin. Get on with it… Ed] and a repeat is a distinct possibility.
Assuming the mud wins out, three horses stand out, being proven triers in the most testing conditions. Those three are Sainted (2.30), Defoe (3.05) and Arrowtown (5.25).
Sainted’s absence from action since last season should not be a worry; Turpin’s spies say that shrewd William Haggas has been waiting for the perfect conditions and this mudlark could score at the main expense of Invermere, and Mick Channon’s Summer Icon, now at a level where she could be a real threat.
Defoe is the nap selection in the 3.05, having impressed greatly in heavy ground at Newbury, in a fashion to suggest that more improvement is on the cards.
Our third mudlark, Arrowtown, would normally have been a ‘Longshot’ suggestion; but these conditions give Mick Easterby’s five-year-old a distinct advantage off bottom weight. The mare was unlucky in her two-length defeat in heavy ground at Doncaster in May and could represent one of the value bets of the day.
And finally, Hilary J really caught this highwayman’s eye here last time. The six furlongs proved a shade too much for her, having led keenly for the first five furlongs.
Dropped back to the minimum distance, a shrewd move from Leyburn trainer Ann Duffield, could be the answer to a highly competitive sprint.
Desert Ace is a big threat, having impressed in the soft at Hamilton last week. Iain Jardine’s gelding is penalized 6lb for that win, which might be just enough to peg him back.
New to the races? See below for my cunning betting plan…
Win: Queen Penn
Longshot: Summer Icon
Win: Defoe (Nap)
EW: Meteor Light
Longshot: Bear Valley
Win: Home Cummins
EW: Silvery Moon
Longshot: Moonlight Navigator
Win: White Rosa
Win: Hilary J (n.b.)
EW: Desert Ace
A betting plan from Turpin
It’s easy to get carried away at the races; especially if you start chasing losses.
Today’s first race, a five-runner event with three high-quality unraced entrants, is best avoided. On paper, a repeat of Queen Penn’s enterprising second at Newmarket should be enough to claim this.
But the Godolphin newcomer, Moseeb (a €190,000 foal) is already being talked about as a Group 1 prospect. Turpin’s advice is just to watch the race and look for clues about the going for the rest of the afternoon.
With the remaining six races, don’t make the rookie mistake of splitting your betting money equally between all six.
Whether you follow Turpin or pick your own, select the two races in which you believe you have the best chance of picking a winner, then put 50 per cent of your total betting pot on your favoured choice, and 30 per cent on your second selection (or 40 per cent on each selection).
Then split your remaining 20 per cent four ways, with five per cent on each of those races (and you can take a chance on some longshot or each-way chances).
If you bet level stakes throughout, unless you get a nice long-odds winner, you will need at least two winners to break even. With the Turpin staking plan, if just one of your main selections wins, you will come out ahead. Any other winners are a bonus.