Who’ll win at York Races? Tips for the Music Showcase weekend 2014

A fascinating card in prospect today (Saturday, July 26), with two particularly thrilling races standing out, writes our tipster Turpin. Just eight runners remain for the York Stakes (2.55) but at least six of them have a real live chance.

Immediately afterwards comes the blink-and-you’ll-miss-it thrill of the Skybet Dash (3.30), a 20-runner handicap that could throw up a real wild-card winner at tasty odds.

1.50

Luca Cumani’s useful Lingfield winner Kleo makes a strong appeal in the opener. Carnevale‘s June win at Newbury suggests the Beckett-trained filly may run the selection close. Maracuja is to be respected too, but longshot preference is for the Easterby mare, Maven, to fill a place at friendly odds.

2.20

It would be no surprise to see Alfred Hutchinson trot up after a series of promising outings here. But Turpin simply can not ignore the performance of Sir Reginald to finish fourth in the Scottish Stewards’ Cup at Hamilton a week ago.

Connections confirm that the six-year-old gelding sprouted wings a little too late, and 3lb-claimer George Challoner won’t be letting that happen again. Silent Bullet and Dutch Rose appeal for the minor places.

2.55

A mouthwatering race in prospect. Godolphin’s likely favourite Windhoek has the benefit of never-say-die jockey Kieron Fallon, but Turpin prefers the look of Luca Cumani’s Danadana, whose two runs this season suggest that healthy improvement is likely.

Secret Gesture will have her followers after a Nottingham win last month, but value-seekers may be better off by siding with the unpronounceable Sheikhzayedroad for the minor place.

3.30

Hang on to your hats, folks. This six-furlong cavalry charge promises to be the spectacle of the day – and a very close finish is predicted.

The Fallon / Easterby combination with top-weight Hoof It may offer the best value in the race, with a place a strong possibility at tasty odds.

But the form points unmistakably towards just two: Muthmir and Line Of Reason.

Muthmir’s recent second at Newcastle went straight into the Turpin notebook for a major plunge next time out. But up against Line Of Reason, seeking a fourth consecutive win, (the high point being the beating Silvanus here a fortnight ago), the usually fearless Turpin is quaking a little.

So, moderate stakes all round. There is strong stable talk about Foxtrot Romeo, who rivals Hoof It in the shortlist for a good-value tilt at a place.

4.05

Again, betting caution is advised here, as always in maiden races with debutants. Kevin Ryan won this last year with Hot Streak, and the unraced Mercury could very well do the business again. The market may be the best guide.

Of the ones with form, Gurkha Friend is the stand-out choice for Turpin, having performed well for a second place in a similar-sized field at Hamilton on his debut last week. That track experience may be the difference between it and the other newcomers.

Third Time Lucky and Toocoolforschool both on a racecourse for only the second time, also made good showings on their debuts.

4.40

Look no further than the likely joint favourites, Itlaaq and See And Be Seen to battle it out for the honours in this intriguing two-mile event.

See And Be Seen is favoured off the lower mark, with Almagest the only other contender likely to spoil the party.

5.15

Turpin’s heart says Richard Fahey’s Ventura Shadow might be the surprise package here, after touching off Pres Rapide here earlier this month.

But Turpin’s head says Secret Liaison‘s win at Thirsk in May showed all the hallmarks of a filly that would do well on the five-furlong Knavesmire course. Fahey’s other runner, Clouds Rest, is expected to be in the shake-up too.

 

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From Friday, July 25, 2014

Summer evening racing is back on Knavesmire. A great night is in prospect with four competitive handicaps, a fascinating maiden race with six newcomers – not to mention the Beach Boys and Wet Wet Wet in the music showcase.

YorkMix‘s Dick Turpin has been hard at work getting the inside track information… Here are his verdicts

6.00

Top weight Joys Of Spring has sound claims following an excellent second at Windsor eleven days ago. That run suggested she has even more in the tank and is the firm choice to hold off Megan Carberry aboard distance-winner Top Of The Glas.

Despite two recent wins, Green Zone has still not been tested to the limit. Today might be the day.

But it would only take a small improvement to see the gelding trot up with Shelley Birkett defying the weight penalty.

6.30

Another fascinating handicap. And, again, Turpin goes with the top weight, Sunraider. This is not a confident choice, however, as good claims can be made for at least five of this 15-runner field.

Mon Brav has his followers, but that recent seventh at Doncaster suggests he reached his limit there. Connections say that race should be disregarded as it was not run to suit him.

Turpin reckons the jury is still out, preferring to look more closely at Bosham, Vallarta, Majestic Dream, Ypres and Arctic Feeling to contest the places. Not a race to put your shirt on.

7.00

This fascinating 13-runner maiden features half a dozen newcomers. That’s usually a signal for serious punters to take great care.

But Turpin thought he saw something special in Mark Johnston’s Kifaaya on his debut at Haydock earlier this month.

Fifth out of seven suggests there is much room for improvement; but the colt ran very green and by the time he got the hang of it the race was over.

Intiwin is the formbook danger, but Turpin believes the colt is somewhat one-paced and will lack the acceleration needed in that final furlong.

Turpin hears good things about Kevin Ryan’s debutant Swift Approval, who may make a bold showing. Sir Mark Prescott brings the unraced Celestial Path, and any market move should be noted.

7.30

Tasaday will be all the rage in the betting ring. On paper, he’s the form choice; but Knavesmire is turf not paper, and Turpin prefers the claims of Regardez, an eye-catching filly who impressed mightily when she romped home at Newcastle.

Regal Hawk or Wall Of Sound will battle for the minor places.

8.00

David O’Meara comes strong-handed to this with a useful trio, Bartack, Anderiego and Berlusca.

Josh Doyle’s 7lb claim aboard Bartack could be the decisive factor. But Turpin’s Irish connections have been in touch about Miller Beach. One to watch, they said, gently tapping their noses.

Turpin gets the message. Simply Shining has shown enough so far to be worthy of attention, and Samantha Bell’s 5lb claim may be enough to give her a live chance.

8.30

Innocently will be the likely favourite following a comfy win at Catterick. If escaping the stalls well, the O’Meara gelding will be very hard to peg back, but there’s a 7lb penalty to overcome.

Turpin has a preference for Dutch Breeze, after good showings at Thirsk, York and Ripon.

Top weight Lexington Abbey, fresh from victory at Nottingham, is hitting his best form right now and looks the biggest danger.

National Service looks good value for each-way backers looking for a nice price place.