York City’s battle to survive in the National League is reaching crunch point, with only nine games remaining for Adam Hinshelwood’s team to prove their survival credentials – how does City’s run-in compare with their relegation rivals?
While Oxford City find themselves 13 points adrift of safety at the time of writing, the remaining relegation spots find themselves wide open for discussion.
With the majority of sides in the league still fighting for something, it is hard to declare any fixtures as “easier” than others – as only six points separate 10th place Hartlepool United from the dreaded drop zone whereas 9th placed Halifax Town are only four points away from the play-offs.
For the sake of this article, I am going to explore the run-ins of City’s closest relegation rivals – downwards from 18th placed Wealdstone who claimed victory over the Minstermen at the LNER last weekend.
At the time of writing, Hinshelwood’s men sit 21st place on 39 points, two points behind Woking who sit just outside of the drop zone on goal difference.
With fifty points usually serving as the benchmark for survival in any league, this may be far from the case this season. It looks like City could require five wins to secure fifth tier status for next season, which may prove a tall order looking at their run-in:
- Kidderminster Harriers (A), Altrincham Town (A), Aldershot Town (H), Bromley (A), Chesterfield (H), Halifax Town (A), Eastleigh (H), Woking (H), Solihull Moors (A)
Excluding the Eastleigh game, City’s remaining opposition all appear to be either direct relegation rivals or fighting for the promotion places.
With Woking and Kidderminster sticking out as direct relegation rivals, one potential route for optimism may be the fact that Solihull Moors may have their play-off spot wrapped up before the final day.
With Chesterfield having the league all but won, they have shown frailties in recent weeks – as shown by their 4-1 loss to Dorking Wanderers – City fans will cling to the hope of the league leaders taking their foot off the pedal for their visit to the LNER.
However, there is no escaping the fact that City’s run-in comes across as one the more difficult, with Aldershot, Altrincham and Halifax all fiercely contending for a place in the National League Play-offs.
On the other hand, in direct competition with City, Kidderminster Harriers fixtures appear almost equally difficult – with the promotion-chasing pack of Halifax, Bromley and Barnet occupying their fixture list, not to mention a trip to the Champions elect Chesterfield who may lift the title against The Harriers.
The inconsistent Dorking Wanderers could not follow up their shock 4-1 victory over the league leaders against Altrincham in mid-week; however, their fixtures seem kinder than that of their relegation rivals.
With a trip to Maidenhead United posing as their only fixture against a direct relegation rival, there is a harsh run of five games against Solihull, Barnet, Bromley, Aldershot and Altrincham – the likelihood may be that by that time, at least one of these teams will have assured themselves a spot in the play-offs.
After this run, Dorking will close their season against the newly relegated duo of Rochdale and Hartlepool who will likely not have anything to play for by that point in the season.
Michael Doyle’s Woking will not feel too threatened by their run-in. With plenty of games against sides that will likely have nothing to play for as Southend United, Dagenham & Redbridge, Eastleigh and AFC Fylde remaining. However, one fixture to look out for is The Cardinal’s trip to City on the second-to-last day – which could very much be a relegation crunch tie by the time.
Another side on City’s radar are Alan Devonshire’s Maidenhead United – a renowned survival specialist in this division. His Maidenhead team are yet to play Dorking in a six-pointer this weekend. Their final day will see them travel to Derbyshire to face the champions-elect; however, with six wins and only one loss in their history against The Spirites, this could be a vital fixture on the curtain raiser.
Finally, Wealdstone are appearing to drift away from the relegation battle with two consecutive away wins. Noble’s side still have Oxford City, Boreham Wood and Eastleigh. Stones fans may also be clinging on to the hope that Oldham will have assured their position in the play-offs before their final day journey to Boundary Park.
With the Hinshelwood era flattering to deceive in his opening two fixtures, City have a lot to prove if their place in the National League is to be assured for the 2024/25 season. However, with the league wide-open and many sides to possibly be dragged into the relegation scrap – it is sure to be a nail-biting end to the National League season.