Who’ll win at York Races? Tips for the Ebor Festival 2014: Day 4

23 Aug 2014 @ 9.03 am
| Sport
Ready to race. Photograph © Richard Towell on Flickr

The tipsters' table, York Races, Saturday, August 23, 2014

Who's tipping what: scroll horizontally to see all the picks

Tipster/ raceDick TurpinAt The RacesGG.comSunMirrorTelegraphThe TimesThe GuardianDaily Mail
2.05Custom CutFarraajFarraajGraphicFarraajCustom CutFarraajFarraajFarraaj
2.40ConnecticutConnecticutConnecticutConnecticutInnocent TouchConnecticutConnecticutBatterseaPenhill
3.15Baitha Alga (nap)BeaconBaitha AlgaBeaconMuhaararGlenalmondMuhaarar (nap)GlenalmondMuhaarar
3.50Pallastor (nb)Clever CookiePallasatorMighty YarDe RigueurDare To AchieveRetirement PlanTed VealeWadi Al Hattawi
4.25Cool StrutterCool StrutterCool StrutterMoonrakerMoonrakerShowing Character (nb)MoonrakerMind Of MadnessMoonraker
5.00Ajman BridgeLlanarmon LadWhispering WarriorBancnuanaheireannMavenAjman BridgeBraidleyLlanarmon Lad (nap)Ajman Bridge
5.35Full Steam AheadFull Steam AheadOnline AlexanderRoyal Mezyan (nb)InnocentlyFull Steam AheadRoyal MezyanScarboroughHigh On Life

Turpin marks your card

So here we are, the Melrose, the Gimcrack and the wonderful Ebor Handicap, three of the best races in the entire racing calendar, and all in the space of just over an hour at Knavesmire.

Here’s how Turpin reads the card.


Expect Farraaj, Custom Cut and Graphic to be battling out the finish of this extended mile. The Tudhope-O’Meara partnership gets the vote narrowly, after three impressive wins at Windsor, Pontefract and Leopardstown. Trade Storm could represent a great value longshot.

Win: Custom Cut; EW: Farraaj; Longshot: Trade Storm


There is a strong whisper for Uradel, Willie Mullins’ improving colt, who performed brilliantly at Chantilly in June. Turpin’s preference, though, is for the top weight, Luca Cumani’s Connecticut, looking for a four-timer.

The Melrose Handicap’s 1 mile 6 furlong is a true stamina test, and Connecticut may have most to fear from Battersea, Rocket Ship and Vent De Force.

Peter Chapple-Hyam’s Rock Of Gibraltar descendent Farquhar (Frankie Dettori) may be the surprise package at long odds.

Win: Connecticut; EW: Battersea; Longshot: Farquhar


A fabulous contest in store for the six-furlong Gimcrack Stakes. Don’t be surprised to see a blanket finish, as there is little to separate the principals. Beacon, Jungle Cat, The Great War and Muhaarar all have sound claims.

But they’ll have to get past Richard Hannon’s likely favourite Baitha Alga. The low draw (3) is a bonus that Frankie Dettori will use to best advantage.

Win: Baitha Alga (Nap); EW: Beacon; Longshot: Fendale


Top weight Whiplash Willie has probably been pegged back by the handicapper this time. That 9st 10lb is a hefty burden over this testing 1m6f Ebor Handicap.

But the same weight may yet be carried to victory by Sir Mark Prescott’s powerful Pallastor, who followed up an enterprising second at Haydock in early July with an eye-catching win at Ascot at the end of the month.

Of the rest, Clever Cookie makes most appeal, ahead of Wadi Al Hattawi, De Rigeuer and Mighty Yar.

If you are looking for a real longshot, consider Ted Veale, with the added bonus of a 7lb claim from promising youngster Sean Corby. That could be decisive in such a competitive contest.

Win: Pallastor (NB); EW: Clever Cookie; Longshot: Ted Veale


Cool Strutter, Richard Hannon’s impressive colt, is running into tremendous form and may have just enough in hand to beat off the challenge of Mind Of Madness and Showing Character.

Al Fareej represents value in a tricky race that might be better watched rather than bet upon.

Win: Cool Strutter; EW: Showing Character; Longshot: Al Fareej


Likely favourite Ajman Bridge will be hard to beat. Turpin loves to oppose the favourite when he can; but here, he can’t. Luca Cumani’s colt is coming into top form at just the right time, with two good runner-up performances (Newbury and Goodwood) last month.

Awake My Soul, Whispering Warrior and Raskova all appeal in the battle for second place, and they should be thereabouts at the post.

Mark Johnston’s Lyn Value is reportedly working very well and might be the race’s surprise package.

Win: Ajman Bridge; EW: Whispering Warrior; Longshot: Lyn Valley


It’s easy to make a strong case for Online Alexander, but Turpin reckons Full Steam Ahead‘s weight advantage will make all the difference over this sharp five furlongs. There is little between them.

Searchlight, Innocently and Speed Hawk all have decent claims too, with the latter just edging Turpin’s vote to make the frame.

Win: Full Steam Ahead; EW: Online Alexander; Longshot: Speed Hawk


From Thursday, August 22, 2014

The tipsters' table, York Races, Friday, August 22, 2014

Who's tipping what: scroll horizontally to see all the picks

Tipster/ raceDick TurpinAt The RacesGG.comSunMirrorTelegraphThe TimesThe GuardianDaily Mail
1.55Pearl CastleWigmore HallSemeenChancerySalutationSemeenWigmore Hall (nap)Wigmore HallEsteaming (nb)
2.30Cavalryman (NB)CavalrymanCavalrymanCavalrymanCavalrymanEstimateAngel GabrialCavalrymanPale Mimosa
3.05Heaven's GuestCable BayMushirThat Is The SpiritHeaven's GuestErtijaalAbsolutely SoGlory AwaitsWindfast
3.40Sole Power (Nap)Sole PowerSole PowerSole Power (nb)MoviestaRangaliRangaliAstaire (nb)Take Cover (nap)
4.20Acaster MalbisAcaster MalbisAcaster MalbisBeach SambaForeign DiplomatAcaster MalbisAcaster MalbisAcaster MalbisAcaster Malbis
4.55Maverick WaveMaverick WaveMaverick WaveMoohaarib (nap)Tiger Twenty TwoMaverick WaveMoohaarib (nb)HalationMunaaser

Turpin marks your card

Turpin had a blisteringly good day on Thursday (August 21). Short Squeeze delivered the goods at 8-1 in the third race.

A great performance, but enhanced by Turpin’s advice about Top Notch Tonto for the place – returning a massive straight forecast dividend of £110.93, more than enough to see the old highwayman merrily singing his way back to town for the Micklegate run.

Appropriately, Bragging finished off his tremendous day with a fine 100-30 victory in the last race.

The biggest upset came in the Yorkshire Oaks with long odds-on “certainty” (5-1 on!) Taghgrooda being headed by Tapestry just 100 yards from the line.

Regular Turpin readers will have benefited from his suggestion that there was a risk to Taghgrooda if the smallish field resulted in an unhelpful pace. He spotted Tapestry as the main danger – and at 8-1 it was a great result.

It’s day three (Friday, August 22) and the City Of York Stakes (3.05pm) and the Nunthorpe (3.40pm) have attracted world-class fields, promising a thrilling day all round.

Here’s how Turpin reads the card.


The winner should come from Semeen, Pearl Castle, Stomachion or Wigmore Hall. Pearl Castle’s course-and-distance experience may be the deciding factor. Gabrial The Hero‘s two wins this term mark him out as a good longshot at attractive odds.

Win: Pearl Castle; Each way: Semeen; Longshot: Gabrial The Hero


Very hard to look beyond Cavalryman, Estimate and Pale Mimosa for the top places. The Dunlop-Buick combination on Times Up merits inclusion as a longshot, with a great chance if the two-mile stamina test is run to suit.

Win: Cavalryman (NB); EW: Estimate; Longshot: Times Up


A tricky City of York Stakes. Betting caution is advised. Turpin is ignoring Heaven’s Guest‘s last disappointing run, and focusing instead on his promising showings at Ascot and Newmarket in July.

Similar comment applies to Gabriel’s Lad whose last run was a huge let-down. But Turpin expects him to be thereabouts too.

Preference for the place goes to either Cable Bay or Rerouted, with the former getting the vote, thanks to the guidance of Jamie Spencer. Though the lack of a recent run is a concern.

If capturing his previous form, That Is The Spirit (Hughes-O’Meara) could spring a good surprise at decent odds.

Win: Heaven’s Guest; EW: Cable Bay; Longshot: That Is The Spirit


Aha! The Nunthorpe. Blink and you’ll miss it. One of the racing year’s most highly-prized sprints promises to confer its electrifying magic on Knavesmire.

Turpin doesn’t expect a 40-1 upset as last year with Jwala. Instead he is sticking confidently with the clear top-rated form horse, Sole Power, a course-and-distance winner just hitting peak form and on a three-timer.

Hot Streak, Shea Shea and Extortionist will be in contention under the shadow of the winning post, but we expect to see them all just behind the Griffiths-Doyle charge, Take Cover, who is also seeking a third consecutive win.

Kieren Fallon and Roger Varian are a formidable crew, and we can see that team getting Steps to exceed recent performances, and maybe spring a surprise at longish odds.

Win: Sole Power (Nap); EW: Take Cover; Longshot: Steps


Another difficult one to assess, especially with around half a dozen seeing a racetrack for the first time. So the temptation is to focus only on the ones with any form at all.

Acaster Malbis, named after the riverside location where Turpin is rumoured to have had a secret bolthole, merits respect and is a tentative selection. Dissolution and Swot are likely to be thereabouts, with Sir Michael Stoute’s Dissolution getting the vote for a place.

But the most interesting newcomer has to be the William Haggas entry, Foreign Diplomat. A breeding line to Danehill Dancer is always worth noting, but even more noteworthy is the booking of Frankie Dettori.

Could be the surprise result of the day – and at attractive odds too. Any market move must be noted.

Win: Acaster Malbis; EW: Dissolution; Longshot: Foreign Diplomat


The day ends with an intriguing mile handicap. Enterprising William Buick is hoping for a steering job on John Gosden’s Maverick Wave, very impressive earlier at Lingfield and Newmarket.

Munaseer‘s Newmarket win in July marks him out as the main threat. Kevin Ryan’s Lesha (like Foreign Diplomat in the 4.20, with a line to Danehill Dancer) is a worthy longshot selection.

Win: Maverick Wave; EW: Munaaser; Longshot: Lesha


From Thursday, August 21, 2014

The tipsters' table, York Races, Thursday, August 21, 2014

Who's tipping what: scroll horizontally to see all the picks

Tipster/ raceDick TurpinRacing PostAt The RacesGG.comSunMirrorTelegraphThe TimesThe GuardianDaily Mail
1.55Kool KompanyKool KompanyKool KompanyKool KompanyKool KompanyKool KompanyKool KompanyValley Of FireFast ActKool Kompany
2.30Cursory Glance (Nap)Tiggy WiggyAnthem AlexanderTiggy WiggyTiggy WiggyTiggy WiggyAnthem Alexander (nap)Anthem Alexander (nb)Tiggy WiggyCursory Glance
3.05Short SqueezeShort SqueezeRussian RealmRussian RealmBronze Angel (nap)Fort BastionParboldShort SqueezeFort Bastion (nb)Bronze Angel (nap)
4.20Arabian Comet (NB)Quiz MistressStella BellissimaArabian CometWailaArabian CometNoble ProtectorNoble Protector (nap)MomentusNoble Protector
4.55BraggingSparkle FactorEnrapturedBraggingDutch RoseDusky QueenSparkle FactorEnrapturedJamesbo’s Girl (nap)Ticking Katie (nb)

Turpin marks your card

A thrilling first day of the Ebor meeting on Wednesday, Australia’s win evoking memories of Frankel’s victory here in the same race.

It was all going so well for Turpin’s YorkMix Placepot – until the fifth race, when Itlaaq failed to get into the frame!

Turpin can’t promise such accuracy with tipping on Day Two (Thursday, August 21); it’s a much tougher prospect all round, except for Taghrooda in the fourth race. But at such short odds (likely 1-3 !) you’d be better off in the grandstand bar for that one.

So, here we go again…


Trickiest race of the day to assess. Twenty yearlings line up for the six-furlong dash. The obvious favourite, Kool Kompany has already proved himself for the Hughes-Hannon partnership with four impressive wins from six outings. He is undoubtedly the one to beat.

Fast Act, Mukhmal, Markaz and Kasbah will all be thereabouts. But Turpin has his eye on Sawaahel for a possible upset.

It’s Hannon’s second string here (with Dane O’Neill aboard), but his debut run and win at Newmarket earlier this month was great start, and he will have come on tremendously for that track experience. A definiute each way chance at decent odds.

Win: Kool Kompany; EW: Mukhmal; Longshot: Sawaahel


Trainer Roger Varian had to make the toughest decision of all yesterday when he pulled Kingston Hill from the Great Voltigeur Stakes. The ground was just too firm for the Derby runner-up.

No such tough decision today for Varian’s Cursory Glance in these Lowther Stakes. Varian’s charge is looking for a three-timer, but comes up against a tough opponent in likely favourite Tiggy Wiggy.

Richard Hannon’s filly returns to Knavesmire to avenge her May defeat here against Patience Alexander, who has done little since, but again takes up the challenge.

A fascinating contest. Anthem Alexander could shake them all up too. Turpin likes to look for value, so opts to oppose Tiggy Wiggy. Could Sulaalat represent a decent longshot?

Win: Cursory Glance (Nap); EW: Anthem Alexander; Longshot: Sulaalat


No such thing as a confident selection all day – and this one mile contest is a tough one. Seven of the 20 runners have sound claims. But Turpin reckons Short Squeeze may relish the return to Knavesmire after a promising fourth last month. Top Notch Tonto, Bronze Angel and Parbold all have good opportunities.

Win: Short Squeeze; EW: Top Notch Tonto; Longshot: Parbold


What will come second to John Gosden’s flying machine Taghrooda? Barring disaster – or a poor pace in such a small field – the cripplingly short-priced favourite looks to be unopposable for the Yorkshire Oaks. Only Tapestry and Venus De Milo hold any hope of a place.

Win: Taghrooda; EW: Tapestry; Longshot: Venus De Milo


Turpin hears whispers from many sources – and all the whispers here are for the great work that Arabian Comet has been doing at home at William Haggas’s yard.

The bad news is that Turpin’s whisperer has told everyone else. So the Dubawi-sired filly is likely to go off favourite.

But at reasonable (3-1/4-1) price, as there are others with good claims, including Noble Protector and the lightly-raced Starlet.

Win: Arabian Comet (NB); EW: Noble Protector; Longshot: Starlet


How Turpin loves a cavalry charge to finish the day. Twenty fillies line up for this highly competitive seven-furlong contest. For a real run for your money, look no further than Sir Michael Stoute’s in-form Bragging.

Dutch Rose (Tudhope/ O’Meara) returns to try to win for the second year running, and may just have enough in the tank to be there at the finish. Enraptured and Sparkle Factor should be, as we say here at YorkMix Towers, in the mix too.

Win: Bragging; EW: Dutch Rose; Longshot: Enraptured


From Wednesday, August 20, 2014

The tipsters' table, York Races, Wednesday, August 20, 2014

Who's tipping what: scroll horizontally to see all the picks

TipsterDick TurpinRacing PostAt The RacesGG.comMirrorTelegraphThe TimesThe Guardian
1.55See The SunBogartRobot BoyMove In TimeJudge 'n JuryJudge 'n JuryRobot BoyMass Rally
2.30JamaicaBasateenMisleadingBasateenBasateenBasateenGrowl (nap)Basateen
3.05Kingston Hill (NB)Kingston HillKingston HillKingston HillKingston HillSnow Sky (nap)Kingston HillKingston Hill
3.40Australia (Nap)AustraliaAustraliaAustraliaMukhadramTelescopeThe Grey GatsbyMukhadram
4.20ItlaaqBantamItlaaqItlaaqItlaaqItlaaqQuest For More (nb)Spacious Sky
4.55Burnt SugarFelix LeiterBurnt SugarBurnt SugarFelix LeiterFelix LeiterIzzthatrightFelix Leiter

Turpin marks your card

There’s a tremendous opening card for the first day of the much-anticipated high point of York’s racing year, the Ebor Festival.

Derby winner Australia, and Derby runner-up, Kingston Hill are both on show, and should not be opposed.

Kingston Hill goes in the Great Voltigeur (3.05) and gives York racing fans a tremendous chance to witness the quality of this year’s crop of three-year-olds.

Excitement should be at fever pitch for the Juddmonte International Stakes (3.40) when the Epsom victor Australia is expected to show the dominance of all the progeny of 2001 Derby winner Galileo.

I reckon both those steeds will do Knavesmire proud and represent his two banker bets of the day. These likely short-priced favourites means that YorkMix‘s favourite highwayman and tipster Dick Turpin has had to delve even deeper than usual to find some other selections that represent good value and a chance to give the bookies a thrashing.

Here he goes…


This intriguing extended five-furlong opener should see Move In Time, Goldstream, Robot Boy and Mass Rally battling it out, but only for the minor places. The one Turpin reckons they will have to beat is See The Sun. The Easterby-Allan combination are at the top of their game right now, and the chestnut gelding does best when at Knavesmire, registering a narrow win against the useful Naadirr here in June.

Win: See The Sun; Each way: Move In Time; Longshot: Mass Rally


It’s hard to know just how good some of these very lightly raced youngsters are. Debut winners Growl and Misleading could be anything – and this is the race where we will start to discover exactly what! So, betting caution is advised. Preference is for the O’Brien charge Jamaica (a Galileo half-brother to Australia), whose performances in Ireland suggest the colt has a huge future. The high draw is a small bonus too. Basateen and Prince Gagarin may be best of the rest.

Win: Jamaica; EW: Basateen; Longshot: Prince Gagarin


The Great Voltigeur Stakes is always a race to savour. Ten runners are likely to go to post for this year’s mile and a half contest. But all eyes will be on Derby runner-up Kingston Hill. The likely short-priced favourite is clear top rated and is Turpin’s confident selection. The O’Brien partnership’s Granddukeoftuscany look to be the main threat, with Mark Johnston’s Hartnell and Sir Michael Stoute’s Snow Sky having sound claims for a place.

Win: Kingston Hill (NB); EW: Granddukeoftuscany; Longshot: Snow Sky


Don’t miss a moment of this race. Derby winner Australia is worth the price of admission alone, and Turpin expects him to trot up, albeit at odds-on. The most betting fun may be to try to pick the 1-2 forecast. Telescope, after sound runs at Chester and Ascot, is Turpin’s choice to fill that place. The danger may come from William Haggas’s Mukhadram.

Win: Australia (nap); EW: Telescope


Whatever happens in the preceding races, there would be no bigger cheer for any horse than if Knavesmire regular Itlaaq could take this testing two-mile event. The eight-year-old is the oldest horse in the race, but it may be a shade too much to ask of the game Easterby gelding who knows his way round Knavesmire better than any other horse here today. So, it’s a slightly sentimental selection; yet it’s hard to pick an obvious choice to oppose him. The Fanning-Johnston combination is well represented by Sir Frank Morgan, which would be a good value selection for a minor place. Dolphin Village, Big Thunder and Spacious Sky also should be in the shake-up, with the Fahey-Challoner charge (Dolphin Village), making most appeal for the runner-up slot.

Win: Itlaaq; EW: Dolphin Village; Longshot: Sir Frank Morgan


Turpin is hugely impressed with the strike rate of the Hannon-Hughes partnership, and their Burnt Sugar could deliver a welcome long-odds performance in the last race. Karl Burke’s Felix Leiter is an obvious danger after a good win at Yarmouth and an emphatic five-length victory at Nottingham a week ago. Top weight Maatmu (the Easterby-Allan combo) is a likely favourite and certain to be thereabouts. Bottom-weight Uptight may represent the best value in the race for a long-odds place.

Win: Burnt Sugar; EW: Felix Leiter; Longshot: Uptight